The Washington Submit‘s Philip Bump goes over the assorted causes why Trump’s imagined conspiracy wouldn’t work, from the necessity for a foul actor to acquire—in Trump’s model—”MILLIONS” of legitimate voter signatures to the problem of focusing on any such effort to be each sufficiently small to go undetected and, someway, have predicted with accuracy simply which states wanted to be tampered with and the way a lot—regardless of the reply shifting on doubtlessly a week-by-week foundation.
However the end-of-the-conversation motive why no unhealthy actor might ship in “MILLIONS” of faux ballots and count on to swing an election is as a result of they must know, prematurely, which voters weren’t going to vote. In the event that they screwed that up even a handful of instances whereas mailing of their “MILLIONS” of ballots (presumably with not-foreign postmarks, as an alternative mailed from quite a lot of submit workplace bins to look real), the entire scheme could be uncovered. You’ll be able to’t mail in votes for individuals who can mail in their very own votes, or vote in individual. Would not work.
You’ll be able to’t mail in votes from lifeless individuals or individuals who have moved, both, for comparable causes. You would possibly be capable of do it in a handful of instances, after researching particular people to find out whether or not or not the registrar is conscious of their standing, however that requires figuring out extra about voters than the native registrar does—which is a herculean effort, and that’s presuming a international actor is getting their data by hacking native registrars to start with.
Anyhoo, Trump’s present obsession is a concept that even he most likely would not truly imagine, a concept that his apparent god-like genius will solely be thwarted resulting from worldwide machinations in opposition to him. It should most likely worsen the decrease he sinks within the polls, however even when he rebounds it will likely be his go-to rationalization if he loses in November, whether or not or not it’s by one vote or tens of tens of millions.
Our troopers in World Wars I and II voted by mail, in fact. They did not all sail residence for the day, then sail again.
None of that is to say there will not be fraud within the November elections. We are able to nearly actually rely on it. Republicans will try to dam as many People from voting as attainable, utilizing each the strategies honed in previous racist drives and with new, pandemic-specific variations (see: Wisconsin). It’s a certainty that Russia, at least, will once more try to sabotage the election with misinformation, espionage, and even perhaps worse actions only for the sake of doing so. Putin’s staff has not been shy in spreading even pandemic misinformation that would result in escalating deaths, with obvious confidence that this administration, not less than, will take no motion to retaliate.
There’s additionally a really actual risk authorities voter data will once more be damaged into, maybe this time with the intent of corrupting that data and creating chaos on voting day. And so forth.
The particular factor Trump claims to be nervous about, nonetheless, is not a believable situation. Whereas Trump is pleading with Chinese language leaders to change their buying and selling choices to enhance his election possibilities and makes an attempt to extort nations like Ukraine into manufacturing faux data for use in opposition to his opponent, “MILLIONS” of invalid voters is not going to be turning out in shouty, all-uppercase plots in opposition to him.
In claiming so, Trump is simply looking for to sow mistrust within the election outcomes and stoke attainable violence if his voters don’t come out on high. For Trump and his Republican Home and Senate allies, it’s simply one other day of undermining American democracy and violating his oath of workplace for self-gain. Or for the sake of emotionally dealing with one other draining weekend.